The Next Pandemic Could Be Engineered. A New Program Aims to Stop It

Half a decade after the covid-19 pandemic began, the threat of another fast-spreading viral outbreak remains. On Thursday, a new program based at the University of Cambridge launched to help the world prepare for it.

While covid’s origins still haven’t been definitively determined, the Engineered Pandemics Risk Management Programme was established on the belief that a future pandemic could be the result of a deliberate, human-made effort. Its research will focus partly on preventing such an outbreak and partly on developing contingency plans for the United Kingdom in case the worst comes to pass. Though the program was established last year, Thursday marked its formal launch. Among its staff are world-renowned experts in subjects that include immunology, science policy, and biotechnology.

Biological warfare has been used for thousands of years, and there is actually precedent for it (possibly) leading to a full-fledged pandemic. Some scholars believe the Mongolian Golden Horde kicked off the Black Death in Europe by flinging dead bodies infected with the bacteria that caused the disease during the 1346 Siege of Caffa. In a press release, the committee said the modern threat is unprecedented, given advances in artificial intelligence and gene editing.

“There is a great opportunity to take a joined-up approach to managing the risks posed by engineered pandemics,” said Clare Bryant, a professor at Cambridge’s Department of Medicine, and co-chair of the program. “We need experts and agencies across the spectrum to work together to develop a better understanding of who or what might drive such events and what their likely impact would be. And we need evidence-informed policies and networks in place that would help us respond to—or better still, prevent—such an eventuality.”

Along with researching the most likely state and non-state actors who could be working to modify harmful pathogens (or just release one accidentally), the program will also examine strategies for dealing with such a crisis once it’s unleashed. At the onset of the covid-19 pandemic, hospitals around the world dealt with a shortage of personal protective equipment, such as N95 respirators. The experts on the panel will work on models that could help predict what products and other infrastructure may be needed should another pandemic hit, and how supply lines can be set up to ensure there are no shortfalls of supplies. That includes how to ensure there’s a sufficient supply of vaccines, should one be available.

Speaking of vaccines, the group acknowledged that mistrust of science and the spread of misinformation is bound to play a major role in an outbreak. Given that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—a man who has spread dangerous (and potentially deadly) misinformation about vaccines—is now overseeing the public health system of the United States, strengthening pandemic preparedness seems like a wise move.

It’s not clear when any of the program’s work will be published or made publicly available. Given that a new coronavirus that could possibly infect humans was discovered literally this week, and that experts have been warning for years that another pandemic is likely to occur this century, we think we speak for everyone when we wish them Godspeed.